Saturday, January 26, 2008

Georgia Delegates and Barack Obama

Georgia Politics Unfiltered offers an interesting analysis of how Senator Barack Obama might win the state-wide vote in Georgia but lose the delegate count in seven to eight of Georgia's Congressional districts if he does not manage to persuade white Georgians to vote for him in substantial numbers.

The crux of the matter:


59% of the black vote in a Congressional district with a 11.08% black voting age population (that's the 11th Congressional district by the way) isn't going to put any candidate, black or white, in a position to win a majority of the district-level delegates there. You need between 35% and 45% of the white vote to win, and right now, Barack Obama doesn't have that in Georgia. To me, that poses a serious problem for him when it comes to racking up the delegates in the Peach State.

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