Election of President Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev of Russia

Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev was elected President of Russia on March 2nd with 70.28 per cent of the vote with turnout of 69.81 percent, according to Moscow Times. (Democracy Arsenal, Siberian Light, Voices from Russia, and Lituanica offer some blogger perspective on this important event in world affairs.) Mr. Medvedev's election is an important milestone for both the global economic environment and for American national security; reactions to the election are therefore relevant to assessing the fitness of the three remaining candidates in pursuit of election to the American presidency. Dmitry Medvedev's election also marks a transition of subtantial interest to progressive business leaders worldwide. Marshall Goldman of Harvard and author of Petrostate: Putin, Power and the New Russia describes the event as a selection rather than an election while noting the enormous implications for the balance of power among the nations which attend Russia's ascendance as the world's largest producer of petroleum and its second largest exporter.

All three remaining candidates for the U.S. presidency have commented on Medvedev's election. Junior New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton said that the election marked a "retreat" from democracy. Junior Illinois Senator Barack H. Obama highlighted the constraints on professional journalism and the repression of political opponents in Russia as cause for concern. Senator John McCain indicated his concerns with the constitutionally sound conduct of the elections. Indeed, the IHT reported evidence of police activity in Moscow suggesting that the hoped for progress towards economic liberalism is not matched by the political liberalization which would best serve the interests of the Russian people and the Russian economy over the long term. Encouragingly, in St. Petersburg protesters joined by Garry Kasparov (author of How Life Imitates Chess) of The Other Russia opposition party chanting "Down with the Police State!" successfully protested electoral problems without police repression. The independent Russian monitoring body Golos noted interference with poll observers and instances of workers being forced to vote in some regions of Russia. There are also reports that the government suppressed the natural right of free expression and cast doubt on glasnost by closing newspapers, raiding political party offices and using law enforcement services to accuse a political party of criminal activities and to close its bank account in St. Petersburg prior to the election.

Barack Obama's current policy statement concerning Russia (focusing on nuclear disarmament) is here. Hillary Clinton's current policy statement concerning Russia is here. John McCain's current policy statement concerning Russia is here. Kommersant offers useful Russian perception of the policies concerning Russia for all three American presidential candidates.

Writing at OpenDemocracy and at Russiablog, Nicolai N. Petro predicts that Medvedev will likely pursue a course of political liberalization as a necessary step in building on the modernization of Russia as a corollary to Vladimir Putin's past efforts. Petro optimistically notes:

…Medvedev's rise is a portent of the historic challenge that Russia's first truly post-Soviet generation is about to face: the creation of Russia's first truly liberal society. For the west, this young, dynamic, liberal and patriotic leader offers a singular opportunity to re-engage with Russia. But it is an opportunity that can be realised only if the west awakes from its long, post-Soviet slumber.

That post-Soviet slumber has been prolonged by the many foreign policy weaknesses of the George W. Bush administration. Although trained in Soviet studies, the tenure of Condoleezza Rice as Secretary of State concerning Russia during the two terms of President George W. Bush will be remembered for its unremarkable character in a period of enormous transformation for the Russian state. The president of the United States elected this November cannot afford such inattention to the dynamics of U.S.-Russian relations and the rapidly unfolding events in Russia which promise to increase Russia's power and influence in world affairs and in global markets.

In a 1 March 2008 profile of Medvedev in the Times (London), it is noted that, unlike Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev is not known to have any links with the Russian secret police or the military. One significant commonality between the two men is that they are both alumni of Leningrad State University in St. Petersburg. Interestingly, Medvedev has declared his commitment to liberalization of the economy and to the individual freedom for which liberal democracies are known. Medvedev specifically stated: “I mean freedom in all its manifestations - personal freedom, economic freedom, finally freedom of expression.” That commitment to liberal governance, however, may be colored by his experience since 2002 as chairman of Gazprom, one of the world's largest corporations after Petrochina of China. Medvedev's occupation of that role is analagous to Vice President Dick Cheney serving concurrently as Chairman of Microsoft and as Vice President of the United States over the past 6 years. Measured by its market capitalization as of December 2007, Gazprom had an asset value of US$345 billion.

As noted by the IHT, in addition to Beijing's interest in access to Russia's oil and gas deposits and its stock of military hardware, the fierce rivalry between China and Russia during the Cold War has lately been replaced by a mutual desire to counter the influence of the United States in world affairs. There is little doubt that the well documented failures of President George W. Bush to prosecute American interests through the practice of robust and competent diplomacy in our dealings with key international counterparts may have played a substantial role in this adverse alignment of Sino-Russian interests.

On the question of the course Russia will take in the pursuit of liberal democracy under Dmitry Medvedev's presidency, it is instructive to note the remarks of President Vladimir Putin during a recent visit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel:

"Dmitry Medvedev will be free from having to prove his liberal views. But he is no less of a Russian nationalist than me, in the good sense of the word, and I do not think our partners will have it easier with him."

However, there may be cause for hope for some gradual political liberalization emerging from the economic liberalization Medvedev has promised to the Russian people.

Citing candidate Medvedev's own stated governing priorities, Russia Today forecasts that Medvedev's election will serve as a catalyst for a surge of investment in Russia. Medvedev was quoted as saying: “Over the next four years, we should focus on the four main directions, the so-called “four i’s” - institutes, infrastructure, innovation and investment.”

In an interview in BusinessWeek, a chief strategist with the Russian investment bank URALSIB suggests the strong mandate supporting Medvedev's election will be very encouraging to investors. (Obviously, in an environment of limited freedom of expression, commentary on matters government policies covering billions of dollars worth of value must be viewed in proper context.) Medvedev has expressed support for the appointment of independent directors to replace state officials on the boards of large Russian companies, a development that will inevitably stimulate indigenous Russian interest in improved corporate governance rules and standards. As is always true, an environment conducive to strong entrepreneurial economic growth and innovation depends on a sound legal framework, which in turn depends on the well balanced fragmentation of political power comprised of an effective judicial power to help set the boundaries on the power of the other governmental branches in their dealings with each other and to defend the rights of the individual in her dealings with the state - rule of law. Medvedev has spoken disapprovingly to business leaders of "legal nihilism" at the root of extra-legal approaches to the resolution of business disputes that have fueled Russia's reputation for corruption and deterred foreign direct investment into Russia. On this subject, Medvedev has pledged to make the judiciary independent from the executive and legislative powers under the Russian constitution. The growth of an effective and independent judicial power as well as the negotiation of power between newly elected President Medvedev and the former, popular president of Russia serving as President Medvedev's prime minister may require constitutional reform and, in any event, will be something to observe.

Russia is a vast country of competing trends and rapidly growing power. Whoever makes it to the White House must have a vision of world affairs that takes full account of Russia's position in its future dealings with the United States and the world community. Voters, journalists and the media - traditional and new - must play a role in informing our selection of new leadership in 2008. Acropolis Review wishes President Dmitry Medvedev the very best for a successful presidency that vindicates the natural rights of the Russian people while contributing positively to economic growth in Russia and throughout the global economy.